According to the 2020 U.S. Census, the population growth rate in the United States has reached its lowest level since the Great Depression. The Great Recession and the COVID-19 epidemic have halted immigration and forced many Americans to delay having children during the last decade.
However, population growth did not halt in all parts of the United States. In fact, from 2010 to 2020, at least one large metro region in virtually every state had a greater population growth rate than the national rate of 6.7 percent.
The Boise City metro region is Idaho’s fastest-growing city. From 2010 to 2020, its population increased by 24.9 percent to 770,353 people. Idaho’s population increased by 16.5 percent during the same period.
Most of the fastest-growing cities in each state have relatively high earnings compared to the state as a whole, which promotes population shifts. The typical annual household income in the Boise City metro region is $66,466, which is much more than Idaho’s median of $60,999.
Boise has been flourishing, thanks to a big influx of people from California. The population has increased by 8% in the previous three years, which is a substantial increase. As a result, housing for both single families and rentals was put under a lot of stress. The average rent increased by 30%, while property prices increased by 60%. Builders cannot keep up with the rate of expansion.
Home prices grow far more quickly than rentals. Their tight connection to local income is a sign of overall housing demand.
Despite the current high level of home demand, investors must concentrate on future demand. Jobs are the strongest predictor of the future. More employment necessitates more homes.
Because all markets lost jobs during the epidemic, our forecasts for future growth are contingent on how soon those jobs return. For Boise, the number of jobs is already 3% greater than it was before the epidemic, indicating a promising future.
In Boise, 26,000 new jobs have emerged in the previous three years, including 7,000 in construction, 6,000 in commerce and transportation (Amazon), 4,000 in business services, 6,000 in healthcare, and none in the significant manufacturing sector (Micron).
Trade, transportation, and healthcare jobs usually expand with the local population. Construction jobs are cyclical; employees come in when demand is high and depart when demand drops.
The huge and rising business services sector, which has a substantial technological core, is the most promising path for future growth in Boise.
As a result, the most likely scenario for Boise is solid long-term growth with a significant chance of a housing price bubble that bursts soon. In other words, it’s a market that investors want to be in, but getting in now carries a significant risk of purchasing near the peak.
What is The Reason for The Growth in Boise?
Once you spend a few days in Boise, it’s simple to see why it’s been one of the nation’s fastest-growing cities for the past few years. The city’s inexpensive cost of living, numerous recreational activities, and an amazing selection of breweries and restaurants are just a few of the reasons Boise has topped national “best of” lists for the previous decade. They’re also one of the reasons why individuals of all ages choose to live in Boise.
And, with the Boise metro population expected to top one million by 2040, it’s worth looking at who’s moving to the region. What can the predicted population expansion tell us about the future of the Treasure Valley?
From Boise’s Humble Past to the National Stage
When residents pinpointed the moment that placed Boise on the map, many mentioned the July 1992 issue of Outside magazine, which featured a shot of bikers riding through historic Hyde Park in the North End, along with the phrase “Where to Live.” Boise had a population of roughly 126,000 people at the time.
In the previous three decades, developments have only contributed to Boise’s appeal as a recreational destination. In the 1990s, for example, trail users, land activists, and government organizations banded together to transform Boise’s informal 90 miles of foothills trails into something larger and more sustainable for all users. Ridge to Rivers presently has over 200 miles of trails for biking, hiking, jogging, and even equestrian riding.
Boise has also established itself as a craft beer hotspot. Idaho is known for potatoes, but it is also the country’s greatest grower of barley and the second-largest producer of hops. Breweries have thrived, particularly in the Treasure Valley, by capitalizing on their home-grown charm. Idaho had the third-largest increase in brewery employment in the United States in 2019.
What Does This Imply for The Real Estate Market In Boise?
It suggests that home demand in Boise and the Treasure Valley will continue to rise soon. To keep up with the demand for housing, most of the valley’s agricultural land could be turned into a new building.
Meanwhile, the region’s new-normal is expected to remain limited home supply and high costs for the foreseeable future. For anyone wanting to sell in this market, this may be great news. However, it makes home affordability in the Treasure Valley a concern. It can also make it more difficult for first-time homeowners to locate anything within their price range.
What Boise’s Future Holds in the Face of Strong Population Growth
Higher population density improves efficiency.
Regions with a high population density are much more efficient in terms of per capita carbon footprint than rural areas and those with a low population. People are more likely to utilize public transportation and reside in apartment buildings that are simpler to heat when they live in densely populated areas. Transport and delivery of commodities are significantly more efficient in large cities, but the average cost and environmental imprint are substantially larger in low population density areas.
Increased Economic Growth.
With more people able to generate more things, population increase will contribute to economic growth. Higher tax revenues will be available to spend on public goods like health care and environmental initiatives.
Human Capital Increases As The Population Grows.
The likelihood of discovering potential and breakthroughs increases as the population grows. These extraordinary individuals have the potential to create technical and cultural masterpieces that will improve their lives. Technical advancement and innovation have grown at an exponential rate in recent years. There are several reasons for this, but one is that a greater population equals a larger pool of human capital, which increases the likelihood of cutting-edge discoveries.
With cheaper housing expenses, reduced starting costs, shorter commutes, and a calmer pace of life, it’s no surprise that Boise has been rated the greatest location to live for millennials. One of the best places to start a business, and one of the finest towns to retire in the last two years. That pretty much covers everyone alive.
Many of the factors that make Boise a desirable place to live are unlikely to change very soon. We should reasonably expect that, given how wonderful Boise is, more people will want to live there.